This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card in Beijing, China. The tournaments are a lot smaller on DraftKings this week, therefore I believe it’s a good week to focus more on cash games. The main GPP is an $8 entry that pays $10K into 1st place. That’s the best one to chase in my opinion. I will have a couple LUs that I placed into a lot of GPPs hoping I will win all of them, but I will not have lots of LUs in complete this week. Other than that, almost all of my play this week will probably be in the money games. Mostly H2Hs. With that said, here are a few plays I like for UFC Beijing, in addition to my fade of this week.
Money Game play of this week — Song Yadong ($9,100)
I think Song Yadong could be the best drama on the card this weekend and you will find 4 fighters priced greater than him. Yadong is a -500 favored on Saturday and I believe that is a struggle the UFC is wanting him to win in his home country. I think in championships, Yadong is going to be the highest owned fighter on the card with 3 women fighters priced over him, with substantially smaller odds of winning ITD. I think you can make a situation to fade him because of his possession in GPPs, but in money games we do not care about possession. I believe that this is a great place to lock at a win and maybe ~100-points, and then try to find 3 more wins that we can afford. More frequently than not 4 wins gets the job done in money games.
GPP drama of this week — Rashad Coulter ($8,400)
This battle has the 2nd highest FDGTD lineup on the card at -400. There is also value on Hu Yaozong with him being $600 cheaper and the gambling line being almost even. Normally when there is value like that on an underdog it makes them one of the more popular fighters on the card. I don’t think both of those guys are UFC level fighters, but I am a little more impressed with what I’ve seen from Coulter than the inexperienced Yaozong. I think getting Coulter at GPP lineups in a lower possession than Yaozong makes sense that weekend at a struggle which shouldn’t move all 3-rounds. If either of those men get an early end they will probably be about the winning lineup. I am imagining Coulter are the reduced owned man of both and that is what makes him my GPP drama of this week.
Underdog play of the week — Francis Ngannou ($7,500)
There really aren’t many underdogs I like to target this week for UFC Beijing. I have not loved creating lineups this week because I hate plugging in two underdogs when I think almost every favorite will get a win. I think the best underdog to target this week is Francis Ngannou because he does have a very clear path to victory and he has already won in this matchup before. The path to success for Ngannou is by knockout, and he has the power in order to KO anyone on Earth. If he can find a KO at $7.5k then he likely ends up on the 1st place lineup, especially if it is an early KO. In the first fight between both of these men Blaydes was able to get 2 takedowns, but Ngannou managed to get up fairly fast each time. If he is in a position to get up like that again here, then I don’t find any way Blaydes are going to have the aerobic to attempt and wrestle for 5-rounds. I think Ngannou is the scarier man on the toes and I don’t see Blaydes wanting to strike for long amounts of time. I think Ngannou is reside for an upset here but on a card, I don’t like many underdogs I think he is the best you to aim with his 1st round KO upside. Fade of this week — Lauren Mueller ($9,200)
I truly don’t enjoy targeting any of these ladies in the 9k range. I believe that they should all get wins, but I don’t find any of them becoming 10x their salary. For Mueller, she would need at least 92 DK things to hit 10x and that I believe she has to get a conclusion to make that happen. Mueller has 5 wins on her MMA record and only 1 of the wins didn’t go to decision. She also only scored 72 DK points in her UFC win. If she scores 72 at $9.2k then she won’t be winning anybody a championship. I also believe Zhang and Xiaonan have better odds of winning compared to Mueller does this that’s why I picked her over those two as my fade of this week. I will not be making a great deal of lineups this week however when I was making 20 lineups afterward Mueller would be on among these.
If you’d like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown with investigation on each struggle, my personal approaches & suggestions, and also my selection outlook for every fight then it is possible to find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:

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